The Redbridge Schools Forum was scheduled to consider funding allocations for schools experiencing falling rolls and to review data on the demand for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision across the borough. The meeting was also scheduled to discuss the capital pipeline for future SEND facilities.

Growth and Falling Rolls Funding Allocation

The Redbridge Schools Forum was scheduled to consider how to allocate £230,500 designated for a Falling Rolls Fund for the 2026/27 academic year. This fund was established after the Forum opted for a middle path in January 2026, allocating half of the Department for Education's (DfE) suggested funding levels for such a fund, with the remainder being added to the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) to increase per-pupil funding.

The report pack presented three potential funding options for the Falling Rolls Fund:

• Funding Option X: This option proposed using DfE criteria based on the October 2025 census to allocate funds. If any money remained after this allocation, it was scheduled to be distributed to schools with falling rolls using the methodology outlined in Funding Option Y.
• Funding Option Y: This option involved dividing the available funds proportionally between schools experiencing a falling roll that met specific criteria. This method was similar to the one used in the 2025/26 financial year, with the addition of criteria regarding capacity caps (CAPs) and variations.
• Funding Option Z: This option also proposed using DfE criteria based on the October 2025 census. However, any remaining funds were scheduled to be allocated to all schools on a per-pupil basis, regardless of whether they had a falling roll.

The report detailed the criteria for eligibility, which included schools having rolls below 80% of their total planned admission number (PAN), having reserves below agreed thresholds (8% for primary and 5% for secondary schools), and local planning data indicating that places would be required within the next 3-5 years. The analysis indicated that under both Funding Option X and Funding Option Z, no schools were scheduled to meet all the DfE criteria in full. Consequently, under Option X, all funds were scheduled to be directed to Option Y's methodology, and under Option Z, all funds were scheduled to be distributed per pupil. Funding Option Y itself proposed calculating the number of 'empty places' in qualifying schools and then distributing the fund proportionally based on these empty places.

The report recommended adopting Funding Option Y, stating that it would ensure that the schools most in need receive additional funding to ameliorate the financial impact of lower numbers whilst they make structural adjustments.¹

Borough-wide SEND Demand and Capital Pipeline

The Redbridge Schools Forum was scheduled to receive an update on the borough-wide demand for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision. The report detailed a review of SEND demand and needs analysis across Redbridge, with associated data presented in appendices.

The analysis indicated a significant increase in the number of pupils with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). In the primary phase (Reception to Year 6), the number of EHCP pupils was scheduled to increase by 60% since January 2022, with a forecast of a further 631 pupils by 2030, bringing the total to 2,351. The prevalence of EHCPs in this age group was projected to rise from 6.2% to 10.7% by 2030. The primary drivers of this demand were identified as Autism and Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN), which together accounted for 83% of EHCPs. The report highlighted that demand was forecast to continue rising, with Autism prevalence projected to increase significantly.

For the secondary phase (Year 7-11), the number of EHCP pupils was scheduled to increase by 37% since January 2022, with a forecast of a further 558 pupils by 2030, reaching a total of 1,673. The prevalence of EHCPs in this age group was expected to rise from 4.4% to 7.1% by 2030. The primary need types in this phase were Autism, SLCN, and Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH) needs, accounting for approximately 78% of EHCPs. Demand was forecast to shift towards Autism, with continued growth in SEMH.

In the post-16 phase (Year 12-13), EHCP numbers were scheduled to increase by 50% since January 2022, with a forecast of a further 202 pupils by 2030, reaching 594. The prevalence was projected to rise from 4.4% to 7.2% by 2030. The main need types in this phase were Autism, SLCN, and SEMH, making up 74% of EHCPs.

The report also presented data on the geographic distribution of SEND demand across Redbridge wards, identifying areas with higher concentrations of need. The work was aimed at developing an emerging capital pipeline to translate identified demand into future specialist provision requirements, considering existing provision, pupil place planning, and opportunities within the school estate. The next phase was planned to involve engagement with schools to further assess educational, operational, and estate implications before any proposals were developed. The overall aim was to create a coordinated approach to expanding specialist provision that aligned with the needs of children and young people in Redbridge.