The Education and Children's Services Committee convened to discuss school place planning, childcare sufficiency, and financial performance. The committee noted the annual update on school place planning, highlighting concerns about falling primary school rolls and the financial impact on schools, and also approved the childcare sufficiency assessment, while raising questions about affordability and access for disadvantaged families. Councillors also reviewed and approved several reports from Achieving for Children (AfC), and discussed budget overspends in social care and the dedicated schools grant.

Financial Performance and Budget Monitoring

The committee reviewed the Q2 Quarterly Monitoring Report, which provided an overview of revenue and capital budget management.

• General Fund: The general fund budget supporting children's services is forecast to be £1.335 million overspent this year, with the largest pressure in social care and early help, specifically the children looked after line. The overspend is due to a rise in the number of children in higher-cost placements, such as independent fostering agencies and children's homes. As an example, at the time of writing the report, six children and young people had placements costing more than £10,000 per week, compared to just two in March.
• Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG): The committee heard that the council expects to spend just over £240 million on education and is forecasting an overspend of just over £5 million, leading to a cumulative deficit of £5.25 million. The key pressure is on the high needs block, relating to the rising numbers of children and young people who require support, and the changing needs within SEND¹. There is an underspend in the early years block of £300,000.
• Capital Programme: The council expects to spend just over £20 million on capital programmes, including special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision, schools, general planned maintenance, and other children's services projects.

Councillor Niki Crookdake asked about a pan-London high needs placement project, and Associate Director for Education Capital Delivery, Andrew Reeve, said that there had been delays due to getting agreement across the 32 London boroughs and with the Department for Education (DfE) on how to manage the loan. He said that these issues have now been largely resolved and it's been agreed that the London borough of Waltham Forest will take forward the proposal in partnership with the DfE, with the expectation that it will be open in 2026 or 2027.

Councillor Zoe McLeod asked what was being done to ensure value for money for the six children and young people whose support costs £10,000 or more a week. Executive Director of Children's Services, Lucy Kourpas, said that she and the Director of Children's Social Care have a weekly placement meeting where they review all children's placements, with a particular focus on complex placements, to ensure that the placement is meeting the child's needs and that the council is negotiating on the cost of the placement.

Councillor Crookdake sought confirmation that the £1.6 million deficit from seven mainstream schools was included in the in-year overspend of just over £5 million. Lucy Kourpas clarified that it was not, because school balances work separately to the overall DSG fund.

The committee noted the report.

Achieving for Children (AfC) Annual Reports 2024-25

The committee reviewed several annual reports from Achieving for Children (AfC), including the Impact Report, Participation Report, Equalities Report, and the Annual Report and Accounts.

Councillor Rob O'Carroll raised concerns about a new religion being listed in the Equalities, Diversity and Inclusion report as White British , and asked for improved proofreading. He also noted that children with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) are heavily weighted towards boys, and asked what steps AfC is taking to ensure that girls with special educational needs are not being missed. Lucy Kourpas responded that the organisation is aware of the issue of under-identification of girls with neurodiversity, and is working to better identify girls earlier in the system.

Councillor Margaret Dane, in her role as Disability Champion, noted that the picture on page 150 of the Annual Equalities Report shows a gentleman who is physically disabled, but that physical disabilities are not mentioned in the literature. She asked what is being done to support staff with physical disabilities. Lucy Kourpas responded that the pictures aren't real employees, but that the staff groups are staff-led, and that the organisation has done quite a lot of work over the past 18 months to improve the experience of staff who live with disabilities.

Councillor Fiona Sacks, in her role as Sanctuary Champion, noted that the Annual Equalities Report states that the council is working to become a borough of sanctuary, but that the council achieved accreditation in April 2024. She also asked if a DfE funded mentoring scheme supporting vulnerable unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC) in Kingston and Richmond is continuing. Lucy Kourpas confirmed that it is, and that some AfC staff are part of the mentoring programme.

Councillor Crookdake noted that a large number of the savings relate to early and preventative work, and asked if the council is cutting these preventative budgets. Lucy Kourpas responded that she is determined to protect the early intervention and prevention budgets, and that the budget saving is not being made out of the budget code that is listed.

The committee noted the reports.

School Place Planning

The committee received an annual update on school place planning. Henry Kilpin, Associate Director for School Place Planning and Achieving for Children, presented the report, which included updates on primary, secondary, and specialist provision, current and historical demand for places, current capacity, and future demand.

Key points from the report:

• Primary Schools: There are currently too many primary school places, with an occupancy rate of 83.7% and almost 3,000 vacancies across all year groups. The national guidance indicates that a vacancy rate of 5% to 10% is advisable. Falling rolls have been a growing issue in London for a number of years, impacting the financial sustainability of schools due to per-pupil funding. The council has been supporting schools with school reorganisations and temporary reductions in forms of entry, and is proposing further permanent reductions at five schools this year. Public consultation will take place between November and January, and the committee will approve the permanent reductions in January 2026.
• Secondary Schools: Demand is still high, and schools are collectively over capacity. Applications have increased by over 13% since 2015. There has been a trend of unplaced children on National Offer Day, but this has reduced due to schools over-offering. The council is mindful that lower primary school numbers will eventually filter through to secondary schools.
• Specialist Provisions: There has been a huge growth in in-borough specialist places since 2012, increasing by almost 100%. The council is working towards a fourth special school, the London River Academy, and has a number of satellite centres and specialist resource provisions within mainstream schools.
• Future Demand: Forecasts indicate a fluctuation in reception numbers, with more of a reduction than previously expected. There will be a reduction in the shortfall of secondary school places, with some surplus places expected towards the end of the decade. The number of EHCPs is expected to continue to increase.

Claire Richmond, Chair of the Richmond Parent Carer Forum, raised concerns about the financial impact of falling rolls on primary schools with a higher proportion of children with SEND, and the need to ensure that children are placed in the place that best meets their needs, rather than wherever there is space. She also highlighted the need to think about workforce and recruitment and retention within SEND specialisms, and urged the committee to consider commissioning a small, nurturing, secondary school for children with SEND who need a mainstream-style education.

Councillor Jo Humphreys said that the verbal report indicated that the problems seen in primary schools may well be felt in secondary schools, and that this wasn't reflected in the report. She also said that there were no projections beyond 2025, and that the report didn't talk about the possible future impact on secondary schools in the west of the borough.

Councillor Crookdake highlighted that the child population projections on page 50 of the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment show that the secondary years are the ones that are going to take the hit in the next 10 years.

The committee noted the report.

Childcare Sufficiency Assessment

The committee received an update on the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment. Eleanor Hughes, Strategic Lead, Early Years and Childcare, presented the report, which provided information about the availability of early years and childcare places and outlined priorities and actions for 2025-2026.

Key points from the report:

• There is sufficient childcare to enable the majority of parents to work and access quality, flexible, affordable provision.
• There has been a significant drop in birth rate, particularly around the 0 to 1 year olds, and the council will be liaising with school place planning to support the flow through into primary schools.
• There has been a small decrease in the number of childminders, and the council needs to work with childminders to understand why that might be the case.
• There has been a slight drop in quality, particularly in full day care provision, and the council needs to work with local leaders around that.

Councillor O'Carroll asked if upskilling provision with SEN knowledge will help identify young people who are not necessarily showing symptoms of SEN to their parents, so that they can get earlier intervention. Eleanor Hughes responded that all childminders are their own SENCO², and that the early years and childcare team has a strong support offer for all early years and childcare providers.

Councillor Sacks asked how the council is helping those where English is a second language, and asked for a plea to work with refugee services within the council. Eleanor Hughes responded that the specialist outreach officer provides one-to-one support for families who need more support in order to understand what the childcare entitlements are, and how they can access them.

Councillor Crookdake raised the question of affordability of childcare, and asked if the council has done any analysis to reassure itself that there is sufficient affordable childcare, rather than just childcare in the places in the borough where it is needed. Eleanor Hughes responded that this is one of the actions that the council has agreed to take, in order to dig deeper into how families are able to access the childcare offer that exists within the borough.

Councillor McLeod asked what the council does when it identifies a provider that is not good or outstanding, and how it helps them get up to the appropriate level. Eleanor Hughes responded that the council is duty bound to support that setting, and that their linked inclusion and improvement advisor goes into that setting and supports them in their action plan.

Councillor Butlin asked if the council has a register of viable care that could be accessed by the people. Eleanor Hughes responded that the council has a childcare search on its website, which lists all of the registered childcare providers within the borough.

The committee noted the report.

Committee Work Programme

The committee considered the committee work programme.

Councillor Crookdake suggested adding an item on policies for disadvantaged cohorts, and Councillor Butlin suggested considering AI and education.

Councillor Crookdake also asked the committee to consider referring the council's current housing allocation scheme to the Policy and Performance Review Board (PPRB) to establish if there is more that can be done to prioritise those with care experience. The committee voted to refer the matter to the PPRB.

The committee noted the work programme and approved the referral to the PPRB.